A GENERAL election battle royale could be shaping up in the unlikeliest of places as an overconfident parliamentary opposition alliance prepares an all out assault for power on a resolute Barisan Nasional lying in wait.
Johor, the birthplace of Umno and BN’s Fort Knox, has for all these years, always been too predictable when it comes to elections. The ruling party never conceded significant losses as to make a dent in its armour.
But the Parti Keadilan Rakyat-Pas-DAP troika, which call themselves Pakatan Rakyat, reckon they can change all that when the 13th general election is held probably within the next few weeks, a wild dream as far as BN and the neutrals are concerned.
The dubious desire is said to have been driven in part by the lust for wealth from Johor’s huge economic progress as well as the thought that they could do a Selangor on the southern state.
Johor offers 26 parliamentary seats, all but one being held by BN. And of the 56 state seats, only six are non-BN.
Still, there is an air of confidence, misplaced or otherwise, permeating the air for Pakatan, spearheaded by Johor PKR chief Datuk Chua Jui Meng, the former health minister.
Johor Baru was picked as the venue for the PKR annual congress a few weeks ago, an indication of where the state lies in the order of importance for the party.
It is understood that Pakatan, for all the internal squabbles underneath, is pushing ahead with strategies to realise its dream, one of which is to identify big names among the three parties, even from outside the state, to contest in Johor.
By doing this, the grouping, especially DAP, thinks it can increase its chances. The game plan: put in the ordinary and less famous candidates in Perak, Penang and Selangor where “they can surely win regardless” and field the big names in Johor to capture new seats, possibly to brighten up hope for a power grab on Putrajaya.
To the neutrals, it is hard to imagine whether this would work, knowing the psyche of the people of Johor.
They are, and have never been, supportive of parties other than Umno-BN, let alone candidates parachuted in from outside the state.
Even in the last general election, when sentiment for the ruling party was said to be low, the most the voters did was to protest through spoilt votes.
Indeed, Johor recorded the highest number with 28,709 spoilt votes for parliamentary seats and 25,455 for state seats then.
For this reason, BN seems to be quite unperturbed by Pakatan’s intended show of force in Johor.
To the ruling party, the DAP-Pakatan strategy takes for granted that the Chinese voters are all for them.
But the fact is, BN has its fair share of support from this community as well, as evident from the Tenang by-election last year, where BN secured almost 30 per cent of the Chinese votes.
A BN source said: “We have done our survey and performance test in voting centres.
“BN will be on safe ground because we found that, at the moment, we can get 25 per cent to 30 per cent of Chinese votes, enough to improve on the 2008 performance.”
The survey, according to him, also revealed that BN could lose up to six parliamentary seats and 15 state seats, if the Chinese support dipped to below 20 per cent.
“This is not likely to happen because Menteri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman, MCA leaders and several non-governmental organisations have been working tirelessly and keeping their ears close to the ground to measure support.”
Pakatan is being rocked by internal bickering but this has not exactly stopped its audacious plan to grab seats in Johor to add to its national tally, and possibly even hustle up the wealth Johor could bring.
I was most amazed to see the progress in Johor Baru when I came by two weeks ago, my first visit after several years.
The state capital has transformed into a bustling metropolis and I couldn’t even recognise some of the localities, despite having lived in the city for a few years 20 years ago.
There were new buildings everywhere and the roads and highways looped around in every corner. The best part is that, unlike in the Klang Valley, most of the new highways are toll-free.
Of course, there is also the Iskandar economic region, which will prove to be something else.
The senseless incident where pig heads were thrown into a mosque in Taman Desa Jaya may just signal the start of a big political battle that is looming on the horizon.
(nst.com.my-by syed nadzri)
